NIW Approval Rate 2026: New USCIS Data for NIW and EB-1A
The NIW approval rate rose to about 55% in Q3 FY2026 as EB-1A fell to 32%. See the latest USCIS data, what is driving it, and how to build a stronger case now.
IMMIGRATION INSIGHTS
10/4/20266 min read
The NIW approval rate has been on a roller coaster. In FY2022, USCIS approved more than 90 percent of the National Interest Waiver petitions it decided. By the last quarter of FY2025, that figure had fallen to about 36 percent, the first quarter on record in which NIW denials outnumbered approvals. Since then, NIW has recovered for three straight quarters, reaching about 55 percent in the third quarter of FY2026.
EB-1A has gone the other way. Its approval rate slid for six consecutive quarters and reached about 32 percent in Q3 FY2026, the lowest on record. Below is what the latest USCIS data shows, how to read it, and what it means if you are preparing a petition now.
Key takeaways
NIW approvals climbed from 35.7 percent (Q4 FY2025) to 42.5, 48.1 and then 55.3 percent across the first three quarters of FY2026.
EB-1A approvals fell from 74.7 percent in Q1 FY2025 to 32.2 percent in Q3 FY2026.
O-1 approvals held steady at about 91 to 93 percent throughout.
Since August 5, 2026, USCIS officers can deny a petition that lacks required evidence without first issuing a request for evidence, which raises the stakes on the initial filing.
NIW approval rate by quarter: the latest USCIS data
USCIS publishes quarterly data on Form I-140 by category, including approvals, denials and pending cases. The approval rates below are calculated the standard way: approvals divided by approvals plus denials for the decisions USCIS completed in that quarter.
EB-2 NIW
FY2022: above 90 percent for the year
Q1 FY2025: 62.7 percent
Q4 FY2025: 35.7 percent
Q1 FY2026: 42.5 percent
Q2 FY2026: 48.1 percent
Q3 FY2026: 55.3 percent
EB-1A
Q1 FY2025: 74.7 percent
FY2025 overall: about 66.9 percent
Q4 FY2025: 53.4 percent
Q1 FY2026: 47.5 percent
Q2 FY2026: 41.8 percent
Q3 FY2026: 32.2 percent
O-1 for comparison
O-1 approvals have stayed between about 91 and 93 percent in every quarter since late FY2025. The O-1 is a temporary work classification with its own criteria, and it requires a US employer or agent, but the contrast is still telling. The drop is concentrated in the self-petitioned green card categories.
How to read the NIW approval rate (and what it does not tell you)
Approval rates are useful, but they are easy to misread. Keep these limits in mind:
They measure decisions, not filings. A quarter's rate reflects the cases USCIS happened to complete in that quarter, many of which were filed a year or more earlier.
They include every petition. Self-prepared filings, template petitions and strong, well-documented cases are all counted together. A low average does not mean a strong case has low odds.
They do not show the RFE stage. Many approvals come only after a request for evidence. The data does not show how many cases needed one.
They do not break down by field or degree. USCIS does not publish NIW approval rates by profession, degree level or country.
In short, the NIW approval rate tells you about the environment. It does not predict the result of any individual petition.
Why NIW approvals fell, and why they are recovering
A surge in filings
Volume is the clearest factor. USCIS received about 22,000 NIW petitions in FY2022 and more than 66,000 in FY2025. By the end of FY2025, roughly 74,000 NIW petitions were pending. As filing volume tripled, the share of thin, generic petitions rose with it, and adjudicators responded with closer scrutiny.
Updated policy guidance
On January 15, 2025, USCIS updated its Policy Manual guidance on national interest waivers. The update emphasized that a petitioner must first qualify for EB-2 before the waiver is considered, expanded the discussion of what national importance requires, and made clear that letters and business plans carry weight only when independent evidence supports them. It also stated plainly that not every entrepreneur qualifies for a waiver, and that broad claims of economic benefit are not enough on their own.
These points track the framework in Matter of Dhanasar, which we explain in What Each of the Three NIW Prongs Actually Asks.
Why the recovery?
USCIS does not explain quarterly swings, so any explanation is informed inference. Two factors are plausible. After a year of high denial rates, some applicants with weaker profiles may have delayed filing or chosen other routes, which changes the mix of cases being decided. Adjudicators also have had more time to apply the 2025 guidance consistently. Neither factor means the standard has relaxed.
Why EB-1A approvals are falling
The EB-1A decline is steeper and more sustained. Most denials do not turn on the number of criteria a petitioner claims. They turn on the final merits determination, the second step in which an officer asks whether the evidence as a whole shows sustained acclaim and places the person among the small percentage at the very top of the field. We cover that two-step analysis in The Ten EB-1A Criteria, and Why Meeting Three Is Only Half the Test.
Patterns we see in weak EB-1A filings include:
Evidence that technically fits a criterion but shows little about standing in the field, such as routine peer review or local awards.
Paid or promotional media presented as independent coverage.
Memberships that any professional can join by paying dues.
Letters that repeat regulatory language without concrete examples of influence.
The October 2024 Policy Manual update on EB-1A did broaden some evidence options. It recognized team awards, allowed past memberships to count, and removed the expectation that published material must demonstrate the value of the person's work. Those changes help petitioners meet criteria. They do not lower the bar at the final merits stage. For a field-specific example, see our guide to EB-1A for software engineers.
The August 2026 policy change: denials without an RFE
On August 5, 2026, USCIS issued Policy Alert PA-2026-05, listed on its Policy Manual updates page. It allows officers to deny a benefit request that fails to establish eligibility, or that lacks required initial evidence, without first issuing a request for evidence or a notice of intent to deny. It rescinded the June 2021 guidance that had generally encouraged officers to issue RFEs or NOIDs before denying.
For NIW and EB-1A petitioners, the practical meaning is simple. Treat the initial filing as possibly your only chance to prove eligibility. If you do receive an RFE, take it seriously; our guide on how to respond to an NIW RFE explains how to answer each prong.
What a lower NIW approval rate means for your strategy
Make the proposed endeavor specific
An endeavor described as "advancing artificial intelligence" or "improving healthcare" invites a finding that national importance is not shown. Describe what you will do, for whom, and with what measurable effect beyond your own employer or clients.
Corroborate every major claim independently
Letters matter, but documents that exist independently of the petition matter more: citations by unrelated researchers, adoption of your work, contracts, funding decisions, government interest, and coverage by real media. Our guides on NIW recommendation letters and how many citations you need go deeper.
Choose the category your evidence supports
With EB-1A at about 32 percent and NIW at about 55 percent, category choice matters. For Rest of World applicants, EB-1 is still current while EB-2 now has a cutoff date in the October 2026 visa bulletin. Some people genuinely qualify for both and file both. Others are better served by building a stronger record first, or by using an O-1 as a bridge.
Build time for quality into your plan
Regular I-140 processing for NIW is now around 30 months. A rushed filing that gets denied costs far more time than an extra month of preparation. See NIW Processing Time in 2026 for current timelines.
If you want an honest read on how your profile would fare under today's standards, book a 1-hour profile consultation with HoatPen. We will review your evidence against the current framework and tell you where it is strong and where it needs work. The $100 fee is credited toward your writing package if you move forward.
Frequently asked questions
What is the NIW approval rate in 2026?
USCIS data shows NIW approval rates of 42.5 percent in Q1 FY2026, 48.1 percent in Q2 and 55.3 percent in Q3 (April through June 2026), measured as approvals divided by approvals plus denials.
What is the EB-1A approval rate in 2026?
EB-1A approval rates were 47.5 percent in Q1 FY2026, 41.8 percent in Q2 and 32.2 percent in Q3, the lowest quarterly figure on record.
Why are so many NIW petitions being denied?
Filing volume roughly tripled between FY2022 and FY2025, and USCIS updated its NIW guidance in January 2025. Common denial reasons include vague proposed endeavors, impact limited to one employer, and claims supported only by letters rather than independent evidence.
Is EB-1A harder than NIW right now?
By the numbers, yes. EB-1A approvals have fallen below NIW approvals for several quarters. But the right category depends on your evidence. A person with true sustained acclaim may still be better off in EB-1A, especially where EB-1 is current.
Can USCIS deny my petition without an RFE?
Yes. Under a policy effective August 5, 2026, officers may deny a petition that lacks required initial evidence or fails to establish eligibility without first issuing an RFE or a notice of intent to deny.
HoatPen is a technical writing and consulting service, not a law firm. This article is general information and is not legal advice. Approval rates are drawn from USCIS quarterly Form I-140 data and change each quarter.
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